Top MLB free agents 2022: Rankings and predictions
CARLSBAD, Calif. — It will be the best of Hot Stove Leagues, it will be the worst of Hot Stove Leagues.
Check out The Post’s Top 40 free agents. That’s right, 40. Longtime readers of this feature will notice an uptick from the usual Top 30. This class features so many enticing names, so many players you know well and want to know where they’re going, that the folks up at corporate signed off on the 33 percent increase, no small thing. Furthermore, many clubs, heartened by the return of full ballparks, appear ready to spend.
Alas, there’s a significant catch: On Dec. 1, the collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association will expire, which will likely lead to an owners’ lockout, a de facto shutdown of the teams’ operations. Which means that we might have to wait until … the New Year? Feb. 1? Never?… for the two sides to hammer out a new deal, after which the fates of many here will be decided. Sigh.
These rankings result from statistical analysis, projected earnings and popular demand. These are not necessarily the 40 best free agents as much as the 40 most interesting to The Post’s readership. The predictions for destination and contract emanate from background conversations with team officials, agents and other people in the loop, as well as an attempt to think along with clubs and players and recognize industry trends and precedents.
The best of this rich shortstop class, he deserves to break Francisco Lindor’s shortstop record ($341 million) with the Mets.
Prediction: Tigers, 10 years, $350 million
2. Corey Seager (SS, Age 27)
Yes, the lefty bat would look great in The Bronx, but do the Yankees want to block their young shortstops Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe?
Prediction: Rangers, 10 years, $305 million
3. Freddie Freeman (1B, Age 32)
It’s just too difficult to imagine him leaving in the wake of the Braves’ first championship in 26 years.
Prediction: Braves, six years, $200 million
4. Max Scherzer (RHP, Age 37)
Having just finished perhaps the most successful megabucks free-agent deal in the sport’s history (seven years and $210 million with the Nationals), what can he do for an encore?
Prediction: Dodgers, three years, $110 million
5. Marcus Semien (IF, Age 31)
Arguably the most durable of the shortstops, and he showed off his versatility this past season by shining at second base for the Blue Jays.
Prediction: Yankees, five years, $140 million
6. Robbie Ray (LHP, Age 30)
The likely American League Cy Young Award winner timed his breakout well.
Prediction: Blue Jays, five years, $125 million
7. Trevor Story (SS, Age 28)
If the Rangers don’t land Seager, Story — a native of Irving, Texas — could be a good fit there.
Prediction: Astros, five years, $110 million
8. Kevin Gausman (RHP, Age 30)
He accepted the qualifying offer a year ago, betting on himself. Now comes the payoff.
Prediction: Giants, five years, $110 million
9. Javier Baez (IF, Age 28)
His brief Mets tenure was compelling, and he’s unlikely to wind up having his throat grabbed by his good friend Lindor.
Prediction: Mets, seven years, $150 million
10. Starling Marte (OF, Age 33)
Easily the best center fielder in this class, though his age calls into question how much longer he can play there.
Prediction: Mets, three years, $75 million
11. Kris Bryant (IF-OF, Age 29)
One of four 2016 Cubs on this list and one of two appealing Swiss Army knives, along with the next guy.
Prediction: Mariners, six years, $140 million
12. Chris Taylor (IF-OF, Age 31)
The Dodgers produced so many stars that a stud like Taylor could play relatively under the radar.
Prediction: Giants, five years, $100 million
13. Marcus Stroman (RHP, Age 30)
Like Gausman, accepting last year’s qualifying offer (from the Mets) looks like a savvy move.
Prediction: Astros, five years, $100 million
14. Clayton Kershaw (LHP, Age 33)
A first-time free agent, the future Hall of Famer, with so many injured-list visits on his record, is more about quality than quantity at this point.
Prediction: Dodgers, three years, $80 million
15. Nelson Cruz (DH, Age 41)
Was his slippage with the Rays upon joining them in July the beginning of the end, or will he resume his “ageless wonder” narrative next season?
Prediction: Mariners, one year, $11 million
16. Nick Castellanos (OF, Age 29)
The highest-ranking person on this list to opt out of an existing contract.
Prediction: Guardians, five years, $85 million
17. Brandon Belt (1B, Age 33)
With Buster Posey retiring, his leadership and institutional knowledge carries even more weight at Oracle Park.
Prediction: Giants, three years, $70 million
18. Kyle Schwarber (LF-1B, Age 28)
The dude just rakes, and boy did he win people over in New England.
Prediction: Red Sox, five years, $80 million
19. Justin Verlander (RHP, Age 38)
Perhaps the most fascinating person on this list, he won the AL Cy Young Award in 2019 and has pitched in just one game since thanks to Tommy John surgery.
Prediction: Yankees, one year, $20 million
20. Kyle Seager (3B, Age 34)
He once put “Corey’s brother” on his Players’ Weekend jersey. How about “Corey’s teammate”?
Prediction: Rangers, three years, $35 million
21. Carlos Rodon (LHP, Age 28)
A non-tender a year ago, he made the White Sox look smart for bringing him back at a discount.
Prediction: White Sox, five years, $75 million
22. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, Age 31)
The New Jersey native enjoyed his best year with his new club.
Prediction: Giants, one year, $18.4 million
23. Raisel Iglesias (RHP, Age 31)
The highest-ranking closer on the list, he scored points in Anaheim for being a strong teammate.
Prediction: Angels, four years, $60 million
24. Michael Conforto (OF, Age 28)
A reunion with his first big-league hitting coach Kevin Long makes plenty of sense.
Prediction: Phillies, six years, $140 million
25. Zack Greinke (RHP, Age 38)
While the Astros didn’t rely on him much in the playoffs, he still threw 171 regular-season innings at a tick above league average.
Prediction: Padres, one year, $13 million
26. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, Age 28)
Could he benefit from another year further removed from his serious COVID case in 2020 to boost his brand?
Prediction: Red Sox, one year, $18.4 million
27. Anthony Rizzo (1B, Age 32)
He made a very strong first impression in The Bronx, although it would be even stronger if he would get vaccinated.
Prediction: Yankees, two years, $32 million
28. Aaron Loup (LHP, Age 33)
A fantastic 2021 with the Mets puts him in position to buy plenty of Busch Lights wherever he winds up.
Prediction: Mets, three years, $27 million
29. Kenley Jansen (RHP, Age 34)
It will be weird to see him in another uniform.
Prediction: Phillies, three years, $40 million
30. Noah Syndergaard (RHP, Age 29)
The qualifying offer was designed for someone like him, who can put himself in a great position for 2022-23 offseason.
Prediction: Mets, one year, $18.4 million
31. Mark Melancon (RHP, Age 36)
He kept it classy in San Diego, as it wasn’t his fault the Pads crashed and burned.
Prediction: Padres, two years, $20 million
32. Avisail Garcia (OF, Age 30)
Every odd-numbered year since 2017 he hits above league average, and every even-numbered year since 2016 he hits below it.
Prediction: Royals, two years, $30 million
33. Steven Matz (LHP, Age 30)
Leaving New York for Canada proved quite the panacea for the Long Islander.
Prediction: Twins, three years, $36 million
34. Jon Gray (RHP Age 30)
Like nearly all Rockies pitchers, he is a tough nut to crack when projecting him elsewhere.
Prediction: Blue Jays, three years, $36 million
35. Brett Gardner (OF, Age 38)
Would he actually play elsewhere if he and the Yankees can’t find common ground?
Prediction: Marlins, one year, $4 million
36. Seiya Suzuki (OF, Age 27)
The Hiroshima Toyo Carp will post him.
Prediction: Marlins, three years, $21 million
37. Andrew Chafin (LHP, Age 31)
A terrific 2021 season with the Cubs and A’s propels him into a higher stratosphere.
Prediction: Yankees, three years, $21 million
38. Rich Hill (LHP, Age 41)
The unstoppable Dick Mountain actually did his job just fine as the Mets’ biggest (not big enough) trade-deadline pitching import.
Prediction: Angels, one year, $6 million
39. Corey Kluber (RHP, Age 35)
He didn’t give the Yankees enough for what they paid him last season, and it’s hard to see him singing for his supper.
Prediction: Retirement
40. Albert Pujols (1B, Age 41)
Baseball’s active leader in pretty much every offensive category wants to keep going.
Prediction: Cardinals, one year, $3 million
ncG1vNJzZmimqaW8tMCNnKamZ2Jlf3J7kGpmaW9fqbyxecylmWaeopqybq3GnqWtq11nfXN%2BjKuYp6OZo7S0ecCnm2aoopqxqq%2FToqanq18%3D